For Investors
Financial Model
Unit economics, sensitivity analysis on the levers that matter, and a candid risk register.
Unit Economics
Sensitivity
| 3% churn | 4% churn | 5% churn | 6% churn | 7% churn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400 CAC | 6.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| $600 CAC | 9.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 18.0 | 21.0 |
| $800 CAC (central) | 12.0 | 16.0 | 20.0 | 24.0 | 28.0 |
| $1,000 CAC | 15.0 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 35.0 |
| $1,200 CAC | 18.0 | 24.0 | 30.0 | 36.0 | 42.0 |
Methodology
Payback months = CAC / (ARPU × gross_margin × (1 - churn)). Central case: $800 CAC, $199 ARPU, 86% margin, 5% monthly churn. Rows span ±50%; cols span 3%–7% monthly churn.
Monthly Cashflow Strip
| Month | Operators | MRR | Burn | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | — | $0 | $18,000 | $177,000 |
| M6 | — | $3,200 | $18,250 | $78,500 |
| M12 | — | $14,800 | $11,300 | $8,200 |
| M18 | — | $31,500 | $-100 | break-even |
Linear ramp on revenue from M4 (post-MVP); opex grows ~2% monthly per headcount in capital_ask. Runway calculated cumulatively from $195K raise. M1/M6/M12/M18 shown as exemplars; full sheet would be emitted by poc-financial-modeler once that agent is live. Modeled
Risk Register
Risk register
| Risk | Severity | Likelihood | Mitigation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub Checks API rate limits throttle PR annotations during deploy-heavy windows | Medium | Medium | Per-installation queue with exponential backoff; pre-negotiated enterprise tier before 1,000 repos. | Modeled |
| Customer security team blocks manifest egress, demanding self-hosted runner ahead of roadmap | Medium | Medium | Ship self-hosted runner in phase 4; publish manifest-only egress security one-pager in phase 2. | Modeled |
| Headless-CMS slug renames bypass the CI gate entirely because the content edit never lands in a PR | High | Medium | Sanity / Contentful webhook integration in phase 4; document the gap in marketing copy until shipped. | Assumption |
| SOC 2 Type II audit slips past phase 3, blocking enterprise deals | Medium | Low | Engage audit firm in phase 2; automate quarterly evidence collection. | Assumption |